Offshore wind energy – South Africa’s untapped resource

Abstract

In the context of the Anthropocene, the decoupling of carbon emissions from electricity generation is critical. South Africa has an ageing coal power fleet, which will gradually be decommissioned over the next 30 years. This creates substantial opportunity for a just transition towards a future energy mix with a high renewable energy penetration. Offshore wind technology is a clean electricity generation alternative that presents great power security and decarbonisation opportunity for South Africa. This study estimated the offshore wind energy resource available within South Africa’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), using a geographic information system methodology. The available resource was estimated under four developmental scenarios. This study revealed that South Africa has an annual offshore wind energy production potential of 44.52 TWh at ocean depths of less than 50 m (Scenario 1) and 2 387.08 TWh at depths less than 1 000 m (Scenario 2). Furthermore, a GIS-based multi-criteria evaluation was conducted to determine the most suitable locations for offshore wind farm development within the South African EEZ. The following suitable offshore wind development regions were identified: Richards Bay, KwaDukuza, Durban, and Struis Bay. Based on South Africa’s annual electricity consumption of 297.8 TWh in 2018, OWE could theoretically supply approximately 15% and 800% of South Africa’s annual electricity demand with offshore wind development Scenario 1 and 2 respectively.