Analysing scenarios for energy emissions reduction in South Africa

Abstract

Global environmental pressure dictates that South Africa reduces its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while national objectives focus on economic development. South Africa is faced with the dilemma of simultaneously alleviating poverty, reducing unemployment, growing the economy and responding to international pressure to reduce GHG emissions. As a result, policies that promote energy emissions reduction without being harmful to economic growth and national developmental priorities are needed. Environmental fiscal reform presents one such option. The impact of this is still unclear for South Africa, and this paper explores this issue. Energy balance data on energy consumption, energy emissions and input-output data for South Africa are used to assess the economic and environmental effects of environmental reform in the energy sector. Despite the high reduction in energy emissions, a tax on coal is not selected as the best alternative given the high negative impact on the economy. A tax on oil results in a low reduction in energy emissions, which limits its use as an environmental policy. The scenario using a petroleum products tax results in small decreases in economic growth but it has low energy emissions reduction, hence, this alternative is not selected as an option. Energy subsidy reform offers the second highest reduction in real energy emissions and a low decrease in economic growth, and this scenario is therefore recognised as the best option for carbon dioxide reduction in South Africa. The electricity tax offers moderate reductions in real energy emissions and a moderate decrease in economic growth, and therefore, it is deduced that the electricity tax option could be another option for carbon dioxide emissions reduction in South Africa.