Implications of biofuel production in the Western Cape province, South Africa: A system dynamics modelling approach of South Africa: A system dynamics modelling approach

Authors

  • Willem Jonker Department of Industrial Engineering, Stellenbosch University.
  • Alan Colin Brent Department of Industrial Engineering and the Centre for Renewable and Sustainable Energy Studies, Stellenbosch University; Sustainable Energy Systems, School of Engineering and Computer Science, Victoria University of Wellington. http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3769-4512
  • Josephine Kaviti Musango School of Public Leadership, and the Centre for Renewable and Sustainable Energy Studies, Stellenbosch University.
  • Imke de Kock Department of Industrial Engineering, Stellenbosch University.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2017/v28i1a1457

Keywords:

green economy, transportation, blending, uncertainty, complexity

Abstract

The national government instated a mandatory blending policy to facilitate the uptake and establishment of a biofuels sector in South Africa. Uncertainty exists, however, regarding the implications and effects of producing biofuels within the Western Cape province, as part of a strategy of the province to transition to a green economy. This investigation was carried out as an effort to simulate the biofuel production within the Western Cape under certain project and policy considerations. A system dynamics model was developed to identify key strategic intervention points that could strengthen the business case of biofuel production. The model showed a feasible business case for bioethanol production, with the best case showing an internal rate of return of 23% (without government subsidy), and an emissions reduction of 63% when compared with coal. It is recommended that special consideration be given to the location of bioethanol production facilities, as operational costs can be minimised by incorporating invasive alien land-clearing schemes as part of the bioethanol production. The model further showed that medium-to-large-scale biodiesel production in the province is not feasible under the given model assumptions, as the positive effects of local biodiesel production do not justify the required government subsidy of ZAR 4.30 per litre. It is recommended that a different approach be investigated, where multiple on-site small-scale biodiesel production facilities are used, thus utilising multiple feedstock options and minimising capital expenditure.

Keywords: green economy; transportation; blending; uncertainty; complexity

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Author Biographies

  • Willem Jonker, Department of Industrial Engineering, Stellenbosch University.
    Master of Engineering Management student in the Department of Industrial Engineering at Stellenbosch University.
  • Alan Colin Brent, Department of Industrial Engineering and the Centre for Renewable and Sustainable Energy Studies, Stellenbosch University; Sustainable Energy Systems, School of Engineering and Computer Science, Victoria University of Wellington.
    Professor of Engineering Management and Sustainable Systems in the Department of Industrial Engineering, and Associate Director of the Centre for Renewable and Sustainable Energy Studies, at Stellenbosch University; and Professor of Sustainable Energy Systems in the School of Engineering and Computer Science, at Victoria University of Wellington.
  • Josephine Kaviti Musango, School of Public Leadership, and the Centre for Renewable and Sustainable Energy Studies, Stellenbosch University.
    Associate Professor with the School of Public Leadership (SPL), and  the Research Group Leader for the Urban Modelling and Metabolism Assessment (uMAMA) research team at the Centre for Complex Systems in Transitions (CST), at Stellenbosch University.
  • Imke de Kock, Department of Industrial Engineering, Stellenbosch University.
    Lecturer in the Department of Industrial Engineering at Stellenbosch University.

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Published

2017-03-23

How to Cite

Implications of biofuel production in the Western Cape province, South Africa: A system dynamics modelling approach of South Africa: A system dynamics modelling approach. (2017). Journal of Energy in Southern Africa, 28(1), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2017/v28i1a1457