Rural electricity system reliability: Do outages exacerbate spending on backup fuel in rural Tanzania?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2022/v33i2a13018Abstract
Most rural Tanzanians have had no access to electricity. But efforts have been made to remedy this, including an extension of the national grid and the establishment of independent power plants in rural areas. The result is a recordable increase of people with access to electricity; however, the realization of reliable power for both consumers and suppliers has remained a puzzle. This paper out to examine the reliability of rural electricity systems based on consumer measures; to find out determinants for system reliability; and examine how outage incidences exacerbate households’ expenditure on backup fuels. Reliability was assessed through a stepwise approach, where a general system reliability index and trend analysis were used. It was found that system reliability was enhanced because consumers only spent 6–15 days per year without electricity due to outages. These are tolerable outages, given the volatility of the rural system. Further, weather, fire outbreaks in bushes, and lightning, significantly determined system reliability. Nonetheless, despite the reasonable reliability, some outage incidences had dragged consumers into unplanned expenditure on backup fuel. It is recommended that there should be a continuous inspection of the system, and the use of supervisory control and data acquisition device on the distribution line for accurate monitoring is imperative.
Downloads
References
Abebberese, A. (2013) Electricity cost and firm performance: Evidence from India. The MIT Journal, 99 (5): 839–852. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00641
Abebberese, A., Ackah, C., & Asuming, P. (2017) Productivity losses and firm responses to electricity shortages: Evidence from Ghana. Journal of Economic Literature: 1-24.
Abotsi, A. (2016) Power outages and production efficiency of firms in Africa. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6 (1): 98 - 104. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2729838
Ali, A. (2016) The impact of electricity outages on households. PhD dissertation, University of Toronto: Canada. Toronto.
Allcott, H., Collard-Wexler, A., & Stephen, D. (2016) How do electricity shortages affect industry? Evidence from India. American Economic Review 106 (3): 587- 624. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20140389
Arlet, J. (2017) Electricity tariffs, power outages and firm performance: a comparative analysis. Global Indicators Group, Development Economics. The World Bank.
Australian Energy Market Commission. (2014) Distribution reliability measures, draft report EPR 0041. Australian Energy Market Commission. Sydney South, Australia.
Bell, A., Ward, P., Killilea, M., & Tamal, M. E. H. (2016) Real-time social data collection in rural Bangladesh via a microtasks for micropayments’ platform on Android smartphones. PLoS One, 11, 0165924. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0165924
Bell, A., Ward, P., Tamal, M. E. H. & Killilea, M., (2019) Assessing recall bias and measurement error in high-frequency social data collection for human-environment research; Population and Environment, 40:325–345 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-019-0314-1
Bhatia, M., Angelou, N. (2015) Beyond connections, energy access redefined; energy sector management assistance program, technical report 0 0 8 / 1 5. World Bank. Washington. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1596/24368
Campbell, R. (2012) Weather-related power outages and electric system resiliency. Congressional Research Services, New York, USA.
Chakravorty, U., Beyza, M., & Marchandx, U. (2012) Impacts of reliable electricity supply. Evidence from India. The University of Alberta, 1- 51.
Chatterton, B. (2014) Network reliability measurement, reporting, benchmarking and alignment with international practices. Eskom, South Africa.
Chen, C., & Modrek, S. (2018) Gendered impact of solid fuel use on acute respiratory infections in children in China. BMC Journal of Public Health, 18; 1-8. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-018-6035-z
Confederation of Tanzania Industries. (2011) Challenges of unreliable electricity supply to manufacturers in Tanzania; a policy research paper submitted to energy sector stakeholders in advocacy for ensured reliable electricity supply to Tanzanian manufacturers. Dar es-Salaam.
Conversation. (2020) Power shortages will remain a big challenge in a post-COVID-19 South Africa. The Conversation. South Africa. Retrieved from: https://theconversation.com/power-shortages-will-remain-a-big-challenge-in-a-post-covid-19-south-africa-134589 (Accessed on 17.05.2020)
Dinkelman, T. (2011) The effects of rural electrification on employment: New evidence from South Africa. American Economic Review, 101 (7): 3078–3108. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.7.3078
Edson Electric Institute. (2019) The many causes of power failure. Edson Institute. New York.
Electricity Supply Monitoring Initiative (ESMI) (2017) ESMI report on monthly Supply quality in the districts of Dar es Salaam City, September 2017. Dar es Salaam: ESMI.
Energy and Environmental Service. (2015) Average duration of electricity outages per month in Africa as of 2015, by select country (in hours) Retrieved from http//www.statista.com/statistics/617570/ (Accessed on 15. 03. 2020)
Energy and Water Regulatory Authority. (2018) Regulatory performance report on electricity sub-sector for the year ended 30th June 2018. EWURA. Dodoma.
Field, A. (2009) Discovering statistics using SPSS. SAGE, London
Field, A. P., & Hole, G. (2003) How to design and report experiments. SAGE publication Inc. London
Fisher-Vanden, K., Mansur, E., & Wang, Q. (2015) Electricity shortage and firm productivity: Evidence from China's industrial firms. Journal of Development Economics, 114: 172 - 188. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.01.002
Gertler, P., Lee, K., & Mobarak, A. (2017) Electricity reliability and economic development in cities: A microeconomic perspective, EEG state-of-knowledge paper series. Oxford Policy Management. Oxford.
Greenstone, M. (2014) Energy growth and development, evidence paper. International Growth Centre (IGC) Accra.
Herman, R., Gaunt, C., & Tait, L. (2014) On the adequacy of electricity reliability indices in South Africa. Energy research centre. University of Cape Town. 6pp.
Ibitoye, F. (2013) The millennium development goals and household energy requirements in Nigeria. Springer Plus, 2 (529): 1-9. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/2193-1801-2-529
Kaufmann, L. (2013) Customer-specific reliability metrics: A jurisdictional survey. Pacific economic group research. Madson, Wisconsin.
Keneth, L., Miguel, E., & Wolfram, C. (2017) Electricity and economic development: A microeconomic perspective, EEG state-of-knowledge paper series. Energy for economic growth was applied to the research programme. California.
Kojima, M., & Trimble, C. (2016) Making power affordable and viable for its utilities. World Bank Group. Washington DC. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1596/25091
Küfeoğlu, S. (2015) Economic impacts of electric power outages and evaluation of customer interruption costs. A dissertation for award of PhD Degree at Aalto University. Helsink. Finland. Doctoral Dissertation, Aalto University School of Electrical Engineering) Aalto University publication series.
Klein M., & Kleinbaum D.G (2010) Logistic Regression, 3rd Ed. Statistics for Biology and Health. Springer. New York. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-1742-3
Lusambo, L. (2016a) Households’ income poverty and inequalities in Tanzania: Analysis of empirical evidence of methodological challenges. Journal of Ecosystem and Ecology, 6 (2): 1-15. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4172/2157-7625.1000183
Lusambo, L. (2016b) Household energy consumption patterns in Tanzania. Journal of Ecosystem and Ecology, 1-20
Marvin, R., & Hoyland, A. (2004) System reliability theory, models, statistical methods and applications (Second Edition) New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 636pp.
Massuque J., Matave C. & Trugilho P.F. (2021) Outlook for the biomass energy sector in Mozambique: Policies and their challenges. Journal of Energy in Southern Africa, 32 (4); 1-10 DOI: https://doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2021/v32i4a11936
Mensa, J. T. (2016) Bring back our light: power outages and industrial performance in Sub-Saharan Africa. Swedish University of Agricultural Science: Uppsala.
Min, B., O’Keeffe, Z., & Zhang, F. (2017) Whose power gets cut? using high-frequency satellite images to measure power supply irregularity. Policy research working paper 8131. World Bank Group. South Asia. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8131
Minnaar, U., Gaunt, C., & Nicolls, F. (2012) Characterisation of power system events on south African transmission power lines. Electric Power System Research, 88: 25 - 32. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsr.2012.01.015
Moyo, B. (2012) Do power cuts affect productivity: A case study of Nigerian manufacturing firms. International Business and Economics Research Journal, 11 (10):1163 - 1174. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19030/iber.v11i10.7262
Muhihi B.G & Lusambo L.P (2021) Electricity for information and communication technology adoption in rural areas, Tanzania. Journal of Co-operative and Business Studies (JCBS), 6 (1) 2714-2043
Muhihi B.G & Lusambo L.P (2022) PLS algorithm for estimating quality rural electricity on household income in Tanzania. Technological Sustainability, DOI 10.1108/TECHS-01-2022-0004 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/TECHS-01-2022-0004
Msyani, C. (2016) Current status of the energy sector in Tanzania, executive exchange on developing an ancillary service market. USA. Washington DC.
Mwakapugi, A., Samji , W., & Smith, S. (2010) The Tanzanian energy sector: The potential for job creation and productivity gains through expanded electrification. Special paper 10/3. Research on Poverty Alleviation (REPOA) Dar es Salaam.
Nikzad, M., & Mozafari, B. (2014) Reliability assessment of incentive- and priced based priced based demand response programs in restructured power systems. Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 56: 83 - 96. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijepes.2013.10.007
Ordarno, L., Sawe, E., Swai, M., Katyega, M., & Lee, A. (2016) Accelerating mini-grids deployment in Sub-Sahara Africa; Lessons from Tanzania. Tanzania Traditional Energy Development Organization (TaTEDO) Dar es-Salaam
Oseni, M., & Pollit, M. (2015) A firm-level analysis of outages loss differentials and self -generation: Evidence from African business enterprises. Journal of Energy Economics, 52: 277 - 286. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.11.008
Panos E, Turton , H., Densing , M., & Volkart, K. (2015) Powering the growth of Sub-Saharan Africa: The jazz and symphony scenarios of World Energy Council. Energy for Sustainable Development, 26: 14 - 33. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2015.01.004
Pallant J (2005) SPSS Survival Manual. A step-by-step guide to data analysis using SPSS for Windows: Ligare Inc. Sydney
Panos, E., Densing , M., & Volkart , K. (2016) Access to electricity in the world energy council's global energy scenarios: An outlook for developing regions until 2030. Journal of Energy Policy, 9: 28 - 49. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2015.11.003
Ramachandran, V., Shah, M., & Moss, T. (2018) How do African firms respond to unreliable power? Exploring firm heterogeneity using k-means clustering. Working paper 493. Center for global development. Washington DC. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3310490
Rud, J. (2012) Electricity provision and industrial development: Evidence from India. Journal of Development Economics, 97: 352-367. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.06.010
Sengi G, & Ntagwirumugara E. (2021) Improving reliability of the power distribution system in Goma (DRC) using solar distributed generation. Journal of Energy in Southern Africa, 32 (4); 84-110 DOI: https://doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2021/v32i4a11207
Rural Energy Agency. (2017) Energy access situation report, 2016 Tanzania mainland. United Republic of Tanzania. Dar Es Salaam.
Schoeman, T., & Saunders, M. (2018) The Impact of outages on small business in the city of Johannesburg. 10th International Conference on Education, Business, Humanities and Social Sciences Studies (EBHSSS-18) Cape Town: University of Johannesburg
Scott, A., Darko, E., Lemma, A., & Rud, J. (2014) How does electricity insecurity affect business in low- and middle-income countries? World Bank. London. 6pp.
Sheskin, D. (2011) Handbook of parametric and non-parametric statistical procedure (5th Ed.) Boca Raton FL: CRC Press.
Shivakumar, A., Welsch, M., Shivakumar, A., Taliotis, C., Howells, M., Jakšić, D., & Baričević, T. (2014) Estimating the socio-economic costs of electricity supply interruptions. Rapid response energy brief. European Commission.
Stiles, G., & Murove, C. (2015) SADC renewable energy and energy efficiency, status report. SADC: Johannesburg.
Taneja, J. (2016) Measuring electricity reliability in Kenya. STIMA Lab, department of electrical and computer engineering, University of Massachusetts. Amherst.
TANESCO (2018) Report on outage incidences for year 2018, analysis of frequency and duration of outages; TANESCO, Kasulu District, Kigoma
TANESCO (2018) Report on outage incidences for year 2018, analysis of frequency and duration of outages; TANESCO.Uyui District, Tabora
U.S Energy Information Administration. (2018) Annual electric power industry report, 2017. U.S Energy Information Administration. Washington DC.
URT. (2015) Tanzania energy policy. Ministry of minerals and energy. Ministry of Minerals and Energy. Dar es-Salaam.
Van Eeuwijk, P., & Angehrn, Z. (2017) How to conduct a focus group discussion (FGD), Methodological manual. Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute. Basel.
Yamane, T. (1967) Statistics: An Introductory Analysis, 2nd ed., Harper and Row, New York.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2022 Bikolimana Muhihi, Lusambo Leopold Paschal
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
.png){kind=spacer}